So, i'm back again! After a while i'm ready to write, and do some more money.
Now i'm using my demo account and testing Ichimoku indicator. I hope it'll help me to find one more new strategy for online traiding. I'll trade GBPGPY. For this moment i had bought 0.1 lot. So i'm in minuses.
Apr 3, 2009
Jan 14, 2008
Учитсо!
В начале февраля, состоится БЕСПЛАТНЫЙ онлайн тренинг "Как создать ИТ
бизнес с нуля"
Вы работаете в сфере информационных технологий, и вам надоело работать
на чужого дядю. У вас давно есть мысли, что пора открыть свое дело, и
начинать работать на себя.
В таком случае наш трениг для вас.
Все подробности читаем http://www.infoproduct.ru/forum/index.php?topic=159.0
бизнес с нуля"
Вы работаете в сфере информационных технологий, и вам надоело работать
на чужого дядю. У вас давно есть мысли, что пора открыть свое дело, и
начинать работать на себя.
В таком случае наш трениг для вас.
Все подробности читаем http://www.infoproduct.ru/forum/index.p
Jan 12, 2008
Oil falls on growing economy concerns
Energy investors remained focused on recent government jobs reports that suggest the economy is struggling to make headway against the challenges posed by a troubled housing market and high oil prices.
"We're still seeing some of these economic concerns," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $1.02 to settle at $92.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell $1.96 a barrel on Thursday after several big retail chains said holiday sales in the United States were weaker than expected, raising new worries about consumer spending. Crude prices ended the week $5.22 a barrel lower, and are 7.4 percent below their record trading price of $100.09 set last week.
The depth of the negative economic sentiment was reflected in the market's tepid reaction Friday to a Nigerian rebel group's bombing of a docked oil tanker. While prices rose on word of the attack and a subsequent fire, economic concerns quickly reasserted their hold on traders. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and a major U.S. supplier.
Oil prices also failed to rally Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank is ready to cut interest rates to help stave off a recession.
"If anything, the market's failure to rally on events like the tanker attack, or the prospect of future interest rate cuts to forestall an economic downturn, helps underscore the extent to which the market has turned bearish," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., in a research note.
At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices fell 0.5 cent overnight to a national average of $3.095 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices have been in retreat lately, following oil's tumble from last week's record of $100.09 a barrel.
Other energy futures also fell Friday. February heating oil futures fell 2.14 cents to settle at $2.5359 a gallon on the Nymex while February gasoline fell 3.98 cents to settle at $2.3203 a gallon. February natural gas futures fell 4.9 cents to settle at $8.21 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude futures fell $1.15 to settle at $91.07 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
"We're still seeing some of these economic concerns," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $1.02 to settle at $92.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell $1.96 a barrel on Thursday after several big retail chains said holiday sales in the United States were weaker than expected, raising new worries about consumer spending. Crude prices ended the week $5.22 a barrel lower, and are 7.4 percent below their record trading price of $100.09 set last week.
The depth of the negative economic sentiment was reflected in the market's tepid reaction Friday to a Nigerian rebel group's bombing of a docked oil tanker. While prices rose on word of the attack and a subsequent fire, economic concerns quickly reasserted their hold on traders. Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and a major U.S. supplier.
Oil prices also failed to rally Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank is ready to cut interest rates to help stave off a recession.
"If anything, the market's failure to rally on events like the tanker attack, or the prospect of future interest rate cuts to forestall an economic downturn, helps underscore the extent to which the market has turned bearish," said Tim Evans, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., in a research note.
At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices fell 0.5 cent overnight to a national average of $3.095 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices have been in retreat lately, following oil's tumble from last week's record of $100.09 a barrel.
Other energy futures also fell Friday. February heating oil futures fell 2.14 cents to settle at $2.5359 a gallon on the Nymex while February gasoline fell 3.98 cents to settle at $2.3203 a gallon. February natural gas futures fell 4.9 cents to settle at $8.21 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude futures fell $1.15 to settle at $91.07 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Dec 18, 2007
Taking Profits
So much time is spent on entering a trade. Today I want to focus on some exit strategies. This is not a full Fibonacci course, so if you don't understand the basics I suggest that you visit my website for help with those aspects.
Human nature makes trading very challenging. Sometimes you want to exit a trade too quickly when it goes against you, and to cling on to a winner too long. Too often a winning trade will reverse, taking back most of your profits, or even going into a loss. On the other hand if you exit too soon, you risk missing some big profits. You may find that you're sitting on the sidelines while the market continues well beyond your exit.
In this lesson I'll show you how to bank those profits before they turn against you.
First look at this FOREX chart (JPY hourly chart).
Let's imagine that you were clever (or lucky) enough to enter long near point "A". You're feeling pretty good when price reaches "B". So good that you don't want to exit, because the up-thrust just before "B" give the impression that this market wants to go further.
Before you know it, the market reverses and heads towards "C". Right at "C" you get scared and bail out with a little profit. Not much profit compared to exiting at point "D" or even at "F".
You exit near "C", and feel relieved until you see the market heading (thrusting) up to point "D". You stop kicking yourself long enough to enter when it breaks above "B", just a little before the high at "D".
Soon after your entry near "D", the market retraces to "E", and on the way breaks below the high of "B". Breaking below the high of "B" feels scary because you're thinking this chart could be back at "A" in a flash. So you exit at "E" licking your wounds with a loss in this trade.
You start to notice more frustration now, when you enter somewhere between "E" and "F". You're feeling good near "F", but then the chart dives to "G" and you're stunned! This is a losing day for your account, and it's beginning to hurt.
By this time you feel like the whole market is watching your trades, and they're doing exactly the opposite of what you are doing. You start thinking that they wait for you to enter before they slam you and empty your account..
You have wasted your emotional capital, you don't want to trade any more. You don't have the stomach to consider shorting the rally after "G" to take profits at "H".
There must be a better way!
Banking those profits.
You should seriously consider using profit targets to improve your trading performance. There are several ways to do this, my preference is to use Fibonacci techniques.
On the following chart, I have added a Fibonacci expansion using points "A, B, C". This provides us with three profit targets. They are at 116.52, 116.93, and 117.59, see the blue arrows.
If I add another Fibonacci expansion using points "C, D, E", then two more profit targets are added, at 116.87 and at 117.22 . I have not added those studies to the chart, in order to keep things simple for now. You will notice the 116.87 target is quite close to the profit target at 116.93 in the above paragraph. And the 117.22 target is remarkably close to the swing high at 117.32 which is between E and F. We'll ignore those for simplicity, just remember that Fibonacci is excellent at predicting probable turning points.
The trick with Fibonacci is that the market sometimes blows right through a profit target. So what do you do then? Simple - you stay in the trade! But sometimes the market reverses shortly after a profit target.
Sometimes the market respects a certain Fibonacci level, sometimes not. Some Fibonacci levels are "stronger" than others. Advanced Fibonacci techniques are able to help determine which have more validity, but that is beyond the scope of this lesson. What mechanism could you use to exit the trade?
One practical method of timing a trade is to use an oscillator. Another is to use a moving average. When an oscillator shows a decline of momentum, or when price crosses a moving average, you could exit the trade. Let's explore the "oscillator" option in the following chart.
In that chart, I have removed the Fibonacci studies (less clutter), leaving the blue arrows for profit targets. At the bottom I have added the default Stochastic per E*Signal charting software. I have added a red vertical line whenever the Stochastic "fast" blue line crosses the "slow" red line just after price rises above the Fibonacci target. If you exited when price reached those vertical red lines, you'd be a happy trader!
Already you can see the potential of using profit targets with an exit trigger.
You may want to research the following:
- Possibly exiting a partial position at each profit target.
- Consider entering long again on the dips, when the chart begins to rally again.
- Consider using multiple time-frames, perhaps Fibonacci studies on the hourly chart, and exit triggers on 5 minute charts.
If you would like to become an expert at trading with Fibonacci, see my trading seminars at my website.
- Neal HughesNov 20, 2007
Oil races to within striking distance of record high as dollar plummets
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil raced to within striking distance of record highs hit earlier this month as dollar weakness prompted a fresh wave of investment.
An Iranian earthquake and a fire at Royal Dutch Shell PLC's 155,000 bbls oil sands facilities in Alberta in Canada following a gas leak also supported the price.
An earthquake in Iran measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale hit the country's oil-rich South West region earlier but reports said oil fields were too far from the epicenter to suffer any real damage.
Commodities denominated in the greenback were made cheaper for those trading in other currencies as the dollar sank to fresh depths earlier today. Gold and some industrial metals also garnered strength from the dollar's free-fall.
The dollar fell to a new record low against the euro and a six-day low against the pound after the housing data, and earlier hit a record low against the Swiss franc.
"A weaker US dollar and talk that the US Federal Reserve Board may cut interest rates to mollify a weak housing market were seen as encouraging a fresh cycle of speculative buying," said Citigroup analyst Tim Evans.
At 4.47 pm, New York WTI crude for January delivery was up 1.83 usd at 96.47 usd/bbl, having hit a day-high of 96.75.
New York's WTI benchmark hit 98.62 usd earlier this month -- its highest ever price.
Meanwhile, London's Brent crude for January delivery was trading up 1.91 usd at 94.19 usd/bbl.
Looking ahead, the US Energy Information Administration will release a closely watched weekly fuel inventory snapshot tomorrow which is likely to determine price direction in the short term.
Citigroup analyst Tim Evans noted that while he expects US crude stocks to have risen last week "the rise would look modest" in comparison with gains made in previous years at this time.
Analysts reckon that in the week to Nov 16 crude oil stocks rose by 1 mln barrels, gasoline inventories rose to 460,000 barrels and distillates fell by 500,000 barrels.
The US is the world's top energy consumer.
The market also expects refinery utilisation to have increased by 0.40 percentage points from the week before to operate at 88.1 percent of their operable capacity.
Cameron Hanover analyst Peter Beutel said at this time of year crude oil stocks have increased in each of the last five years.
"Utilisation has increased in four of the past six years. If we get another report with both higher, it will be a boost for the supply side as we get an early taste of this approaching winter," he said.
The data will be released at 3.30 pm London time.
An Iranian earthquake and a fire at Royal Dutch Shell PLC's 155,000 bbls oil sands facilities in Alberta in Canada following a gas leak also supported the price.
An earthquake in Iran measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale hit the country's oil-rich South West region earlier but reports said oil fields were too far from the epicenter to suffer any real damage.
Commodities denominated in the greenback were made cheaper for those trading in other currencies as the dollar sank to fresh depths earlier today. Gold and some industrial metals also garnered strength from the dollar's free-fall.
The dollar fell to a new record low against the euro and a six-day low against the pound after the housing data, and earlier hit a record low against the Swiss franc.
"A weaker US dollar and talk that the US Federal Reserve Board may cut interest rates to mollify a weak housing market were seen as encouraging a fresh cycle of speculative buying," said Citigroup analyst Tim Evans.
At 4.47 pm, New York WTI crude for January delivery was up 1.83 usd at 96.47 usd/bbl, having hit a day-high of 96.75.
New York's WTI benchmark hit 98.62 usd earlier this month -- its highest ever price.
Meanwhile, London's Brent crude for January delivery was trading up 1.91 usd at 94.19 usd/bbl.
Looking ahead, the US Energy Information Administration will release a closely watched weekly fuel inventory snapshot tomorrow which is likely to determine price direction in the short term.
Citigroup analyst Tim Evans noted that while he expects US crude stocks to have risen last week "the rise would look modest" in comparison with gains made in previous years at this time.
Analysts reckon that in the week to Nov 16 crude oil stocks rose by 1 mln barrels, gasoline inventories rose to 460,000 barrels and distillates fell by 500,000 barrels.
The US is the world's top energy consumer.
The market also expects refinery utilisation to have increased by 0.40 percentage points from the week before to operate at 88.1 percent of their operable capacity.
Cameron Hanover analyst Peter Beutel said at this time of year crude oil stocks have increased in each of the last five years.
"Utilisation has increased in four of the past six years. If we get another report with both higher, it will be a boost for the supply side as we get an early taste of this approaching winter," he said.
The data will be released at 3.30 pm London time.
Nov 1, 2007
Essential Elements of a Successful Trader
Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
Oct 28, 2007
Reuters/Univ Michigan End-Oct Sentiment 80.9; Sep 83.4
Fri, Oct 26 2007, 14:07 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
Reuters/Univ Michigan End-Oct Sentiment 80.9; Sep 83.4
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumer sentiment weakened as of the end of October.
The Reuters/University of Michigan final October consumer sentiment index Friday fell to 80.9 from 83.4 in September's final estimate. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the end of month index to stand at 82.0.
The final October expectations index fell to 70.1 from 74.1 while the current conditions index fell to 97.6 from 97.9.
The report showed inflation expectations were largely stable. The October one-year inflation forecast held steady at 3.1%. The five-year inflation forecast fell to 2.8%, from 2.9%.
-By Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4192; michael.derby@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 26, 2007 10:07 ET (14:07 GMT)
Copyright 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumer sentiment weakened as of the end of October.
The Reuters/University of Michigan final October consumer sentiment index Friday fell to 80.9 from 83.4 in September's final estimate. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the end of month index to stand at 82.0.
The final October expectations index fell to 70.1 from 74.1 while the current conditions index fell to 97.6 from 97.9.
The report showed inflation expectations were largely stable. The October one-year inflation forecast held steady at 3.1%. The five-year inflation forecast fell to 2.8%, from 2.9%.
-By Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4192; michael.derby@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 26, 2007 10:07 ET (14:07 GMT)
Copyright 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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